EARLY Game 38: Golden State Valkyries vs Washington Mystics, 5:30 PM PDT.

Plus APRIBOT simulates the rest of the season

Last game’s Valkyrie Valor goes to…

I added lots of new stuff about the playoff race in today’s installment.

Table of Contents

• What to expect today

  • How to watch

  • Injury / absence report

  • How the Valkyries will play

  • Comparative team power rankings / preview

    • 8. Golden State Valkyries (19-18)

    • 11. Washington Mystics (16-23)

  • Previous matchups

• The story so far

  • Playoff watch: APRIBOT simulates the playoff race

  • Old fashioned playoff race tracking

  • Apricot’s game wrap-ups, a season overview

  • Apricot’s Valkyries & Basketball Basics videos

  • Oversimplified guide to the Valkyries roster

What to expect today

How to watch

• Here is the official GSV TV schedule.

• Usually: KPIX, KPIX+ (Bay Area), KMAX, KOVR (Sacramento), KION (Monterey)

  • In the Bay Area, KPIX is channel 5, and KPIX+, the home of Valkyries basketball, is channel 44 (cable 12). In Sacramento, KMAX is channel 31, and KOVR is channel 13.

  • Also, CBS affiliate KION (channel 46) across the Monterey Bay area, including Santa Cruz, Salinas and Monterey will show August 30 vs. Washington, August 31 vs. Indiana, and September 6 vs. Minnesota.

• WNBA League Pass if you are out of the blackout region. Even if blacked out, in theory the game is available right after the conclusion.

• Friday games are streamed on ION, available on Fubo and YouTube TV and elsewhere. Be careful: in the past ION mis-titled the games on their multiple channels, so try all of them to find the Valkyries.

Injury / absence report

• Carla Leite - Questionable - Right Ankle

• Tiffany Hayes - Questionable - Left Knee

• Monique Billings - Out - Right Ankle

• Kayla Thornton - Out - Right Knee

• Cecilia Zandalasini - Out - Left Calf

GSV is seriously banged up to the point where they were able to add back Bree Hall to the roster on a hardship exception (in addition to keeping super-sub Kaila Charles).

GSV got 5 days off so, it’s possible some players have healed.

How the Valkyries will play

• High energy

  • (Until they collapse as the game goes on for lack of players)

• Fast pace, fast breaks

  • Josiah notes that the GSV pace has been slowing down over the season.

• Aggressive defense trying for on-ball steals and deflected passes

• League-leading three-point shot taking (#1), not shot making (#11)

  • We Lose Money On Every Sale, But We Make It Up In Volume™

• Five-out formations, pick and roll, and HORNS formations

• Shifting defensive schemes, occasional 2-3 zone

• Always Close Enough To Hurt™

• Lots of runs

  • Because the GSV half court offense is bad and their defense and transition offense is good, that means when the opponent scores, GSV gets worse at scoring and when the opponent doesn’t score, GSV gets better. That means lots of runs in the game, good and bad.

• Expect ferocious fight and heart against the odds, and if we ever get a Full Squad, then they should be able to beat all but the top WNBA teams.

  • Update: sorry, Full Squad will not happen in 2025 with the loss of Thornton and weeks of Billings, but they are still fighting fiercely

Comparative team power rankings / preview

Power rankings are all made up, but they are useful to see the conventional wisdom about teams. Here’s one from Newsweek from August 29.

8. Golden State Valkyries (19-18)

Last: 7 | Upcoming: WAS (8/30), IND (8/31), NYL (9/2), DAL (9/4)

Like their namesake warriors, the Valkyries are still battling.

Golden State fell in back-to-back games to the Phoenix Mercury but bounced back in a hard-fought effort against Paige Bueckers and the Wings, where they held the record-breaking rookie to just nine points. Veronica Burton has leaped out as one of the most improved candidates after her 25-point, 13-assist night.

11. Washington Mystics (16-23)

Last: 11 | Upcoming: GSV (8/30), LAS (8/31), PHX (9/4)

The magic is fading for the Mystics, who are now on the outside of the playoff race.

The 'Stics were once a bright spot making a play for a postseason berth, but since trading Brittney Sykes, they have almost fallen out completely. Though they may not make the playoffs this year, Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen are among the most promising players in the league.

WAS will be playing free and easy and focusing on development. They are 5 games out of the playoffs but also 5 games above the next best draft lottery slot. So they should be focusing on developing their super rookies. Which means this will not be an easy game.

Previous matchups

• Game 32 wrap: Valkyries crush Mystics early, then uncrush Mystics and barely hang on (VV: Veronica Burton)

• Game 26 wrap: Valks go up big, barely hold on for playoff-big win over WAS (VV: Kate Martin)

• Game 2. GSV 76, WAS 72.

The story so far

Playoff watch: APRIBOT simulates the playoff race

I’ve written a playoff race simulator. I’ll cut right to the chase and then backfill all the explanation in a footnote.¹ In short, I ran 50,000 simulations of the end of the season and here are the likelihoods of each of the key teams landing in each of the possible spots.

You can see that the most likely standings are #6 SEA, #7 IND, #8 GSV and #9 LAS. This is because LAS plays the hardest schedule and they are already two losses behind the other teams.

It’s not impossible for GSV to get out of #8… about a 41% chance. This is due to GSV owning the tiebreakers over IND and SEA (and LAS).

It’s also not impossible for GSV to fall all the way out of the playoffs (about a 3% chance), but a lot of things would have to go wrong for that to happen, so I hope they're getting ready to pony up rent for Oracle Arena for the home playoff game.

And in case you’re curious, here is the win probability for each remaining GSV game:

Date H/A Opp Win Prob

----------------------------------------

Sat, Aug 30, 2025 v WAS 70%

Sun, Aug 31, 2025 v IND 55%

Tue, Sep 2, 2025 v NYL 46%

Thu, Sep 4, 2025 v DAL 77%

Sat, Sep 6, 2025 v MIN 32%

Tue, Sep 9, 2025 @ SEA 34%

Thu, Sep 11, 2025 @ MIN 17%

APRIBOT knows nothing about tanking and resting, so for instance that last MIN game could be a full rest day for MIN before the playoffs. In fact, if the standings fall just right, MIN might be able to dictate their own opponent by tanking / not tanking that last game. On the other hand, that might put GSV in position to influence their seed by tanking the game themselves. We’ll talk more about this bad karma game theory if it’s relevant in the last days.

Old fashioned playoff race tracking

• Watch the Loss column. GSV can make up a gap in wins with their own great play, but can never make up a gap in losses unless the other team helps out.

• The race has separated into #1 MIN floating out of reach, four teams fighting for #2-#5, four teams fighting for #6 through #9, and four teams out of the playoffs. GSV is in the #6-#9 batch.

• GSV (and everyone) should be trying to the #6 or #7 spot. #8 would mean a first round series against MIN which would be fascinating but also GSV would be heavy underdogs. #7 would mean playing the best team of the #2-#5 tier and they are all pretty darned good.

• People have different religions about how to feel about a game between a team right behind and a team right ahead. For instance, PHX plays SEA. Some want PHX to lose to bring them down within striking range of GSV. Some want SEA to lose to make GSV’s position more secure. The way I figure it, at least something good will happen either way.

W-L PCT GB STRK L10 HOME AWAY

1:MIN 30-8 .789 - L1 7-3 18-2 12-6

2:LV 26-14 .650 5 W12 10-0 14-5 12-9

3:ATL 25-14 .641 5.5 W1 7-3 13-6 12-8

4:PHX 24-14 .632 6 W3 7-3 13-6 11-8

5:NY 24-15 .615 6.5 W2 5-5 16-5 8-10

6:IND 21-18 .538 9.5 W2 4-6 11-9 10-9

7:SEA 21-19 .525 10 W1 5-5 8-10 13-9

8:GSV 19-18 .514 10.5 W1 5-5 10-7 9-11

=============================================

9:LA 17-20 .459 12.5 L2 5-5 7-12 10-8

10:WAS 16-23 .410 14.5 L5 3-7 10-10 6-13

11:CONN 10-28 .263 20 W1 5-5 6-12 4-16

12:CHI 9-29 .237 21 L3 2-8 5-15 4-14

13:DAL 9-31 .225 22 L7 1-9 5-16 4-15

Go to PlainTextSports.com for the latest.

Apricot’s game wrap-ups, a season overview

(VV = Valkyrie Valor vote winner)

• Game 37 wrap: Valkyries skeleton crew pulls away from Wings; team D clamps Paige Bueckers. (VV: Veronica Burton)

• Game 36 wrap: PHX pulls away as Valkyries lose Hayes and Leite (VV: Janelle Salaun)

• Game 35 wrap: Very shorthanded GSV lead most of way, but fade in 4th vs PHX; Close Enough To Hurt™ (VV: Kate Martin)

• Game 34 wrap: Atlanta turn close game into blowout after Rupert and Burton get injured (VV: Veronica Burton)

• Game 33 wrap: Valkyries blow open tight game, beat Sky by 30, set new expansion win record (VV: Cecilia Zandalasini)

• Game 32 wrap: Valkyries crush Mystics early, then uncrush Mystics and barely hang on (VV: Veronica Burton)

• Game 31 wrap: Valkyries blow out Suns, hatch new mascot Violet the Raven (VV: Cecilia Zandalasini)

• Game 30 wrap: Valkyries win, go up 1 game on Sparks plus tiebreaker (VV: Veronica Burton)

• Game 29 wrap: Always Close Enough To Hurt™ but too much A'ja Wilson gives Aces the edge (VV: Carla Leite)

• Game 28 wrap: GSV ends great road trip with Aces blowout (and not the fun kind) (VV: Kaila Charles & Iliana Rupert)

• Game 27 wrap: Injured Valkyries outlast injured Sky; Kaila Charles debuts and closes game (VV: Veronica Burton)

• Game 26 wrap: Valks go up big, barely hold on for playoff-big win over WAS (VV: Kate Martin)

• Game 25 wrap: Valkyries pull out the very random ending in Atlanta (VV: Cecilia Zandalasini)

• Game 24 wrap: Letting go of impermanence leads to the cessation of suffering (VV: poll replaced by Buddhism)

• Game 23 wrap: Valkyries come back vs Wings, VIVA LA FRANCE; GSV begins adjusting to life without Kayla (VV: Janelle Salaun)

• Game 22 wrap: Valkyries fade in last 3 min, Nneke takes over; Always… wait for it… Close Enough To Hurt™ (VV: Carla Leite)

• Game 21 wrap: Valks miracle comeback to tie, then lose on foul call; Always Close Enough To Hurt™ but this is getting ridiculous (VV: Janelle Salaun)

• Game 20 wrap: Always Close Enough To Hurt™; Valkyries fall just short; Aces stars shine (VV: Cecilia Zandalasini)

• Game 19 wrap. Valkyries thump Fever, send campers home sad; Caitlin Clark outshot by Veronica Burton(!?) (VV: Veronica Burton)

• Game 18 wrap. GSV can't overcome turnovers, ATL bigs warping defense; Gray closes out the game (VV: forgot to run poll, sorry)

• Game 17 wrap: GSV leads in Q3, can't keep up with Lynx stars as MIN pulls away; Eurobasketeers have rusty return (VV: Tiffany Hayes)

• Game 16 wrap. GSV blows out Seattle; close for a half and then vooooom; Thornton leaves with injury (VV: Tiffany Hayes)

• Game 15 wrap: Valkyries pull away late to put away Chicago Sky; Thornton career-high 29; Chen and Martin in double digits and close game (VV: Kayla Thornton)

• Game 14 wrap: Always Close Enough to Hurt™; GSV takes champs NYL to last shot; Kate Martin goes wild, but so do Johannes and Stewart

• Game 13 wrap: GSV fast breaks + 2-3 zone = blowout of CONN

• Game 12 wrap: Shorthanded Valkyries storm back from down 13 to beat Caitlin Clark's Fever going away

• Game 11 wrap: Wings outrebound Valks, pull away late; Amihere and Hayes show promise and pain in return

• Game 10 wrap. Valks blowout Storm, then un-blowout Storm, still win. Always Close Enough To Hurt™

• Game 9 wrap. Leite out of the doghouse, closes out the game with Thornton in OT to beat LA; Salaun pours in 21

• Game 8 wrap. Valkyries blow out #3 Aces and contain MVP A’ja Wilson

• Game 7 wrap: Buddhism teaches us that suffering comes from attachment to material things

• Game 6 wrap: Valkyries even with WNBA Finalists Lynx at half, get blown out in Q4, storm back at end too late

• Game 5 wrap: So close to the upset of the year... Always Close Enough To Hurt™

• Game 4 wrap: Liberty blast Valks early by 25; GSV storms back to within 11, but fade in the fourth

• Game 1 wrap: GSV thrills and fights but can't overcome Plum's record-setting 37

Apricot’s Valkyries & Basketball Basics videos

These videos are meant to be friendly to beginners but have interesting observations for observers of all backgrounds. All the parts can be viewed independently, but the vocabulary does build up with each Part. The whole series can be found on YouTube here.

Part 4 terms defined include:

• 00:38 Switching defense

• 00:56 Mismatches

• 02:15 Bad switches

• 03:25 Show and recover defense (hedge and recover)

• 04:54 Drop defense

• 06:17 Valkyries 325 = Warriors 55

• 06:54 Blitz / Trap / Double team defense, surprise

• 07:41 Countering the blitz with isolation

• 08:45 Drop vs blitz defense

Part 3 terms defined include:

• 00:33 Go Over the screen, Go Under the screen, High side, Low side

• 02:19 HORNS formation

• 02:33 Dive or Roll

• 03:23 HORNS 5

• 04:14 Dribble handoff, DHO

• 05:07 Pindown screen, Down screen

• 05:15 Using the screen, Coming off the screen

• 06:37 Jamming the cut, Bumping the cut, Denying the cut

• 07:35 Slip a screen, Roll vs Pop

Part 2 terms defined include:

• 00:38 Recover

• 00:46 Bigs and Smalls

• 00:54 Mismatch

• 01:53 Rotating on defense

• 02:42 Slipping the screen, ghosting the screen

• 03:03 Double team, trap, blitz

• 04:02 Rejecting the screen

• 04:26 Helping at the nail

• 06:21 Slide cut, Passing angle

Part 1 terms include:

• 00:34 Dribbling and shooting, big vs small

• 02:00 Screens

• 02:10 Off ball

• 02:32 Cut, Flare Cut, Flare Screen

• 03:39 Ball Fake

• 03:53 Geography of the Court

• 03:57 Baseline, sideline, up, down, top

• 04:10 Corners, elbows, HORNS

• 05:29 Pick and roll, screen and roll

• 05:49 Dribble handoff

• 06:17 Rebounding, boxing out

• 06:18 Roll

• 07:18 Backdoor cut

• 07:46 ICE defense

• 07:51 take / accept / use the screen

Oversimplified guide to the Valkyries roster

• Usually starters

  • #22 Veronica Burton.

    • Solid point guard, organizes and calls all the plays; outstanding defender and ball-stealer; decent at running pick-and-roll, not a great scorer, but can muscle in layups and running hooks and hit some 3s.

  • #15 Tiffany Hayes.

    • Lightning bug driver, unstoppable in the open court. But this team leader (she spoke at opening day) had a bad nose RE-INJURY and is still wearing a big mask.

    • IND was the first game where she looked comfortable (all year!) and could display both her speedy footwork guarding Caitlin Clark 1-on-1 and also running effective pick and rolls emphasizing her speeding to the rim for layups.

  • #24 Cecilia Zandalasini. Another vet wing who can shoot the 3.

    • Nakase always calls her a sniper. Z has been on fire from three recently and is averaging 1.9 3PM/G, which is good for #2 on the team (behind Iliana Rupert).

    • Went to Eurobasket and led Italy to an upset run to 3rd place, leading the team in scoring and efficiency. She took a while to get back in the WNBA flow, but she looked creative and effective vs LVA.

  • #14 Temi Fagbenle.

    • Decent scoring, all-around, solid vet center. Can run pick and roll and punish mismatches by posting up.

  • #13 Janelle Salaün,

    • Fresh off an Italian League Finals MVP, she joined GSV in Game 2 and hasn’t stopped shooting since. She went to Eurobasket and led the powerhouse France team in scoring and efficiency. She’s taken a few games to adjust to the WNBA, but vs LVA she led the team in scoring.

• Entertaining Bench, slightly chaotic

  • #12 Iliana Rupert

    • A mystery from France. A tall, three-point shooting center who in theory could unlock the 5-out spaced lineups of Nakase’s dreams.

    • As of Aug 13, shooting an absurd .450 from 3P on 4.4 3PA/G. Still getting open looks when she screens and pops out to the arc.

    • More details here: Who is Iliana Rupert and who will be cut to make room for her?

  • #0 Carla Leite

    • Youngest at 21 y.o., was 2024-25 EuroCup Finals MVP.

    • Excellent bounce back games after being in Coach Nakase’s doghouse, barely playing in a 4 game stretch before Eurobasket.

    • Some dazzling speed on drives and horrible turnovers. Her jump shot wasn’t working before the break and her passes to the PNR roller were a rollercoaster. Rookie life.

    • Promised NOT to leave for Eurobasket, a commitment that has won my heart.

  • #20 Kate Martin. The most popular player, Iowa teammate of Caitlin Clark.

    • Has hit a couple of threes but her finishing at the rim has been difficult

    • Starting to settle in a bit as a shooter and even as a screener for pick-and-pop. Her four 3s put GSV in position for an upset over NYL.

    • Chaotic on defense: some very heads-up rotations, some bad switches.

    • Seeing very reduced minutes since Iliana Rupert’s arrival.

  • #3 Laeticia Amihere.

    • Indirectly won this spot over Linskens since GSV is going further into smallball, 5-out, run-and-gun style, which needs a more dynamic athlete to run the court. It didn’t hurt that Amihere hit a couple of threes in preseason.

    • She got some minutes vs SEA and GSV featured her in several keeper-actions where she fakes a dribble handoff to a guard and drives. They were a mixed bag of baskets and offensive fouls.

    • In the DAL and IND games, she has been a bright spot, pouring in points and being very assertive on offense. Amihere adds a different dimension to the team, i.e. get me the ball in the paint or downhill on fake handoff and no one can stop me 1-on-1.

    • On defense, she’s finding her place with some highlight blocks and steals. She’s been getting into the flow of rotating as weak side help from the elbow to cover when there is a small defender stuck in the low weak side.

    • On the other hand, in the NYL game she had a couple of very glaring mistakes: going under on a Marine Johannes screen (which led to an open 3 and then microwave hot Marine making two more 3s in a minute) and misplaying Stewart on an end of quarter drive.

    • Minutes have gone down a lot since the arrival of Iliana Rupert, but with Illy’s injury, she’s back as backup big.

  • #2 Kaitlyn Chen. A decent, smart point guard. Chen was, by applause, *the* most popular player in the preseason games, even surpassing Kate Martin. She is the first player of Taiwanese descent in the WNBA, and in fact is Taiwanese-American raised in California.

    • Chen played real minutes vs NYL. She fought on defense and didn’t turn the ball over on offense. She then not only played real minutes vs CHI, but also closed a tight game!

    • Played her self off the bubble to be cut for Iliana Rupert. On a fully healthy team, she’s not in the rotation, but she is a stable capable replacement.

    • Minutes have gone down a lot since the arrival of Iliana Rupert.

• Injured long-term

  • #25 Monique Billings. Sturdy scorer and rebounding vet, starting to really hit her stride as the screener in pick and roll. Can pop out for 3 or finish through contact.

• Out for the year

  • #5 Kayla Thornton. Vet all-around forward. Likes to spot up for corner 3s and get dirty fighting for rebounds everywhere. With Burton is a team leader and organizer. Was the first All-Star to be undrafted and the first from an expansion team.

• 7-Day Hardship Contracts

  • The Golden State Valkyries have signed free agent guard-forward Kaila Charles to a seven-day roster hardship contract. Charles wears #6.

    • Charles appeared in 17 games for Dallas this season, posting averages of 5.3 points and 4.0 rebounds. The former University of Maryland standout entered the league as the 23rd pick in the 2020 WNBA Draft, selected by Connecticut. Charles played her first two professional seasons with the Sun before later joining Atlanta and Seattle in 2022 and 2023, respectively.

      In 73 career appearances, Charles maintains averages of 4.6 points and 2.9 rebounds. The guard-forward's 5.3 scoring average this season marks a new career best.

    • Charles debuted with a bang, having a great game vs CHI and even closed the game making huge plays. She’s been putting up numbers and getting minutes. I won’t be surprised if GSV tries to hold on to her.

    • Update: Charles was signed to a fresh new 7 day hardship contract. These 7-days should last until Billings returns which could be a while.

  • Bree Hall is back on a 7-day roster hardship contract!

1. APRIBOT uses Simple Rating System to calculate the relative strength of teams. Then she calculates win probabilities for each remaining game. Finally, she applies simple tiebreakers (win percentage for all games between all tied teams)(I’m not sure that’s the actual WNBA tiebreaker, sorry, I did my best.) She then does 50,000 simulations and reports the distribution of final standings.

Our model uses home court advantage = +3 points and standard deviation = 12 pts. In theory we could calculate this from this season’s data or even per team (you figure Ballhalla is a stronger HCA than most). That might happen in a future run. It also might not be worth it because the sample sizes are small.