GSV draft prospects 1, 2 & 3: Paige Bueckers, Kiki Iriafen, Olivia Miles. Probably out of reach.
Though rankings do change...
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These three players form what is currently the consensus Top 3. Which means, don’t get your hopes up about drafting them at #5. Nonetheless, for completeness, we’ll start with these players.
Paige Bueckers
Kiki Iriafen
Olivia Miles
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Paige Bueckers, PG/SG, UConn
First, the “you’re saying there’s a chance”, from jeckylhouse:
from the Athletic, "Will Paige Bueckers use her unprecedented leverage?":
"If Bueckers elects to leave UConn after this season, which has been her public stance, the primary tool at her disposal is demanding a trade from Dallas. Golden State seems like an ideal destination in terms of market size and organizational strength, plus the Valkyries are motivated to get a star quickly, though Bueckers is best suited to provide a list of suitors to encourage negotiations."
Hard to see an incoming rookie making a trade demand, but the note about how the new CBA gives her some pretty strong reasons to not want to be drafted this year (and locked into the current rookie scale for 4 years) was pretty interesting.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6004695/2024/12/19/uconn-paige-bueckers-wnba-draft-leverage/
There’s nothing that could have happened in the expansion draft that would have changed this pick. Bueckers is far and away the top player in this class and a blue-chip prospect that the Wings will be able to build around no matter which direction they decide to steer their franchise in.
Right now, Arike Ogunbowale is the face of the Wings, and Dallas will be trying to keep All-Star forward Satou Sabally for 2025 and beyond. Adding Bueckers—a 6-foot-0 lead guard with elite court vision and three-level scoring ability whose path to stardom seems inevitable—could be the move that finally pushes the Wings from also-rans to contenders.
ESPN:
Dallas has had six lottery picks in the past eight drafts, including Charli Collier at No. 1 in 2021. She has not played in the WNBA the past two seasons. But Bueckers could be like hitting the jackpot for Dallas. She's off to a strong start for UConn through three games, averaging 21.3 points, 3.7 rebounds and 4.0 assists. Her efficiency and versatility make her an excellent pro prospect. The chance to select her could also be the highest-level trade bait, but it's hard to see the Wings giving up a player with this potential.
After losing two seasons to devastating injuries, Bueckers triumphantly returned to the floor in 2023-24. As she was honored at UConn's senior night, Bueckers let the world know that she would be returning for one final season with the Huskies.
Bueckers is the best draft-eligible player in college basketball. She swept National Player of the Year honors as a freshman and has only grown as a player over the past four years. Bueckers is a legit 6-foot backcourt player who scores efficiently, creates for others and rebounds her position well.
Bueckers feels like the surest shot at No. 1. Dallas is an intriguing spot for her as it provides an opportunity to share a backcourt with superstar guard Arike Ogunbowale. The Wings winning the first overall pick could also entice free agent Satou Sabally to stay with the franchise as it looks to return to the playoffs after a down year.
This selection likely won’t change throughout the cycle unless something drastic happens. We broke down Bueckers’s strong start to the year earlier this season. Her two recent games against Louisville and Holy Cross didn’t feature as much scoring, but that’s far from cause for concern.
Part of Bueckers’s greatness comes in her scalability. When her teammates heat up, she has no problems moving off of the ball and adding value as a spacer, cutter and defender. That will serve her well at the next level, as she’ll certainly have other on-ball stars that she’ll need to co-exist with.
Arike Ogunbowale ranked 11th in usage rate (25.9%) last season and Satou Sabally will demand her shots as well. Even if Bueckers quickly develops into the best of that bunch, she’ll need to take a back seat at times on offense, which she’s fully capable of doing.
There's Bueckers and then there's everyone else in this class. The former Naismith Player of the Year has been healthy since the start of last season and has looked tremendous early in this campaign. She's a generational talent, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, where she can score at all three levels and dictate games with her playmaking. There's a reason why Wings guard Arike Ogunbowale reacted to the lottery results by posting "I just fell to my knees. THANK YOU LORD!" on social media.
Kiki Iriafen, PF/C, USC
In a vacuum, No. 4 might be underselling Iriafen as a prospect, but given how pressing the needs of the Sparks and Sky are, those teams may elect to pass on adding another big in the lottery. If that happens, the Mystics could jump at the chance to draft Iriafen, whose first season at USC has been a hands-down success thus far: She’s averaging 18.2 points and 9.1 rebounds while shooting 51.7 percent from the floor, and the 25.6 percent free throw rate she’s posting is a career-best.
Iriafen’s game is already quite polished for a scoring power forward; her footwork in the post and mid-range jumper should translate to the WNBA immediately. There’s also hope that she’ll eventually stretch her range out to beyond the 3-point line, in which case she’ll be significantly more malleable at the WNBA level.
ESPN:
Iriafen is from Los Angeles, transferred to USC in April after three seasons at Stanford and might start her pro career at Crypto.com Arena, not far from the Trojans' Galen Center. After a breakthrough junior season (19.4 points, 11.0 rebounds per game) with the Cardinal, Iriafen is a key player on a Final Four contender. She averaged 17.3 points and 7.5 rebounds through her first four games at USC.
The Sparks took forwards Cameron Brink (No. 2) and Rickea Jackson (No. 4) in the 2024 draft. Brink, who was Iriafen's teammate at Stanford, suffered a knee injury in June and missed the rest of the season. But if she is back healthy with Jackson, who was on the WNBA's All-Rookie team, adding Iriafen makes for a dynamic young post trio.
After three standout seasons at Stanford, Iriafen transferred to USC to spend her final college basketball season in her hometown. She is an incredible athlete and an even better player.
With Rickea Jackson, Dearica Hamby and Cameron Brink, LA already has no shortage of talent in its frontcourt. That said, the Sparks would make a chemistry play by reuniting Brink and Iriafen, who were teammates for three seasons in Palo Alto, Calif.
Iriafen averaged 19.4 points and 11.0 rebounds per game as a junior, including a 41-point outburst in the NCAA Tournament. She opened this season with a 22-point, 13-rebound performance against Ole Miss and continues to develop as a player. Her face-up game from the mid-post is already pro-ready and she appears to be extending her range — after hitting just two 3s during her first three seasons, she has already hit two triples in her first three games at USC.
The upside is too hard to pass up here.
Miles leaving the board one slot before Chicago complicates this pick quite a bit. Both of the top players on the board, Kiki Iriafen and Dominique Malonga, are both bigs without reliable 3-point shots. Chicago, of course, drafted two of those last season. The best fits for the Sky, shooters like Sonia Citron and Azzi Fudd, aren’t the caliber of prospect that the bigs are.
We’ll settle on Iriafen for this mock, but I don’t feel great about it. Her fit with Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso could be clunky on the offensive end, as none of them are reliable spacers. Iriafen at least has been an excellent mid-range shooter in the past, providing a possible outlet for better offense.
Iriafen’s defensive versatility would only add to Chicago’s already stout interior defense. Her, Reese and Cardoso would present immense challenges on the glass and on offense for other teams, further building on their current identity. But this isn’t a wonderful spot for the Sky, regardless of how you slice it, even if Iriafen is a high-level talent.
Tough break for the Sparks, who had a 44.2% chance at winning the lottery, but will have to settle for the No. 2 pick for the second consecutive year. The silver lining is they can select Iriafen, who transferred to USC this season to team up with JuJu Watkins and is the best frontcourt player in the class. Iriafen spent three seasons playing with Cameron Brink at Stanford, and we know they play well together. Between Iriafen, Brink and Rickea Jackson, the Sparks would have an extremely versatile frontcourt.
Olivia Miles, PG, Notre Dame
We don’t yet know if Miles will declare for the 2025 Draft, but if she does, it’s unlikely she’ll fall past lottery range. A superb playmaker whose abilities as a lead guard make those around her better, Miles would be a home-run draft pick for a Sparks team sorely in need of value-added passing. Miles is currently averaging 16.9 points and 6.4 assists per game for a high-octane Notre Dame offense, and she’s drastically improved her jump shooting, too, knocking down 48.6 percent of her 3-point shots. Adding her to a roster featuring center Cameron Brink and forward Rickea Jackson would set the Sparks up with one of the WNBA’s most talented young cores.
ESPN:
Miles, who missed the 2023 postseason and all of 2023-24 because of a knee injury, is another possible early entry. One of the concerns with Miles, along with health, is her 3-point shooting. However, she's off to a good start this season. She had a triple-double in the Irish's opener, and her 20 points, 11 rebounds and 7 assists Sunday against Lafayette helped Notre Dame move to 4-0. Another plus: Success among Notre Dame guards in the WNBA is well established.
The Mystics fired general manager Mike Thibault and coach Eric Thibault after this past season and have yet to replace them. So we don't know at this point who will be making personnel decisions for Washington.
Miles opened her senior season with 20 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists. That she will be a nightly triple-double threat speaks volumes about her skill and versatility.
With the duo of Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso on the blocks, Chicago's frontcourt is set for the future. A playmaking guard of Miles' caliber makes a ton of sense for the Sky as they continue to work to build a contender step by step.
It helps that Chicago has another first-round pick to fully lean into a youth movement.
After drafting two future star frontcourt players last season, the Sparks will search for a high-level lead guard to complete their young core. Miles is playing like a future WNBA star to begin her season and would pair beautifully with Rickea Jackson’s shotmaking and Cameron Brink’s two-way interior presence.
Miles has struggled to shoot the three efficiently in the past, potentially limiting her ceiling as a sub-6-foot point. During her last healthy season, Miles made 22.8% of her 2.8 3-point attempts per game. Through nine games this season, she’s draining an elite 46.2% of her 4.3 attempts per game. The efficiency will likely dip back to earth, but her uptick in volume is encouraging.
If Miles improves her jumper, she boasts all other tools required of a star guard. Her elite quickness, advantage creation and playmaking all project well to the WNBA. Her presence would help elevate LA’s other core pieces and their scoring and defense would help lift Miles even higher.
Miles is shooting the ball well early this season, but she has been poor from behind the arc throughout her career, which is a concern for a Sky team that desperately needs spacing. However, she's so good everywhere else that it's hard to pass on her here, especially when the Sky need a guard. Miles has been at her dynamic best since returning from an ACL tear that cost her all of last season, and her elite playmaking would be a breath of fresh air for Angel Reeseand Kamilla Cardoso.