Game 21: Golden State Valkyries vs Phoenix Mercury, 7:00 PM PDT

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Table of Contents

• What to expect today

  • How to watch

  • Injury / absence report

  • How the Valkyries will play

  • Comparative team power rankings

• The story so far

  • Killer road trip into the All-Star Break

  • The shadow of Iliana Rupert

  • Apricot’s game wrap-ups, a season overview

  • Apricot’s Valkyries & Basketball Basics videos

  • Oversimplified guide to the Valkyries roster

What to expect today

How to watch

• Usually: KPIX+ (Bay Area), KMAX (Sacramento)

  • In the Bay Area, KPIX is channel 5, and KPIX+, the home of Valkyries basketball, is channel 44 (cable 12). In Sacramento, KMAX is channel 31, and KOVR is channel 13.

• Friday games are streamed on ION, available on Fubo and YouTube TV and elsewhere. Be careful, last time ION mis-titled the games on their multiple channels, so try all of them to find the Valkyries.

• WNBA League Pass if you are out of the blackout region. Even if blacked out, in theory the game is available right after the conclusion.

Injury / absence report

• None.

How the Valkyries will play

• High energy

• Fast pace, fast breaks

• Aggressive defense trying for on-ball steals and deflected passes

• League-leading three-point shooting (in attempts, definitely not accuracy)

  • We Lose Money On Every Sale, But We Make It Up In Volume™

• Five-out formations, pick and roll, and HORNS formations

• Shifting defensive schemes, occasional 2-3 zone

Expect ferocious fight and heart against the odds, and if we ever get a Full Squad, then they should be able to beat all but the top WNBA teams.

Comparative team power rankings

Power rankings are all made up, but they are useful to see the conventional wisdom about teams. Here’s one from Newsweek:

5. Golden State Valkyries (9-7)

Last Week: 5 | Upcoming: MIN (7/5), ATL (7/7), IND (7/9)

After a bit of a rocky start, the Valkyries have rounded into form as one of the league's top teams. Golden State has relentless rebounders and hard-nosed defenders at every position. With a smothering defense that turns teams over at a league-leading rate and one of the best fast-break teams, the Valkyries are one of the surprise teams of the season.

2. Phoenix Mercury (12-6)

Last Week: 1 | Upcoming: DAL (7/7), MIN (7/9)

This Mercury squad has been torching teams from the outside, thanks to Alyssa Thomas' MVP-caliber playmaking. At the same time, though, Phoenix has lost two in a row since the loss of sharpshooting rookie Lexi Held to a partially collapsed lung. The squad also suffered an upset loss to a heavily injured Wings team that dominated the boards.

The story so far

Killer road trip into the All-Star Break

GSV have a loooong road trip which includes a little stop home which is so short that in some ways it will feel like part of the road trip.

• July 5 at #1 Minnesota (L, MIN is 11-0 at home)

• July 7 at #4 Atlanta (L, close until the last 5 minutes)

• July 9 at #7 Indiana (W, blowout)

• July 12 at #8 Las Vegas (L, always close enough to hurt™)

• July 14 #3 Phoenix ← YOU ARE HERE

  • yes, technically this is at home, but it’s just for one game and the first game after a road trip is a well-known trap game

• July 16 at #5 Seattle

Expect worse performance as teams play worse on a long road trip as they wear down from the intense schedule and suffer from a lack of time for practice and opponent-specific preparation.

It’s not just theoretical… WNBA road teams win about 42% of the time. That gives roughly an expected value of 2.4 wins.

Also throw in that they are playing 4 of the top 5 teams plus teams better than their record with IND missing time from Caitlyn Clark and LVA recently adding NaLyssa Smith, and this could be ugly.

Throw in on top of that the fact that they will be re-integrating the Eurobasketeers and possibly creating new lineup disruption with the addition of Iliana Rupert and it could get VERY ugly.

Before the trip I wrote: Given all this, I think a realistic stretch goal would be to split the road trip 3-3 with 2-4 and worse likely.

Now: After going 1-3, GSV are technically in the running for 3-3, but it would be an accomplishment.

The shadow of Iliana Rupert

We’ve heard the murmurs (or maybe you’ve just heard it from me). “Rupert is coming, Rupert is coming.” (That’s “Ru-PAIR” in French.) GSV expansion-drafted the rights to Iliana Rupert who starred as the starting center for the powerhouse France team. (FRA lost an absolute heartbreaker to Spain in the semifinals when Rupert missed the game-tying free throw at the buzzer.) Despite that, Rupert is very good and she plans to join GSV now that Eurobasket is over.

More details here:

• Who is Iliana Rupert and who will be cut to make room for her? This piece predicts and predates the waiver of Talbot which happened yesterday…

Apricot’s game wrap-ups, a season overview

(VV = Valkyrie Valor vote winner)

• Game 20 wrap: Always Close Enough To Hurt™; Valkyries fall just short; Aces stars shine (VV: Cecilia Zanadalsini)

• Game 19 wrap. Valkyries thump Fever, send campers home sad; Caitlin Clark outshot by Veronica Burton(!?) (VV: Veronica Burton)

• Game 18 wrap. GSV can't overcome turnovers, ATL bigs warping defense; Gray closes out the game (VV: forgot to run poll, sorry)

• Game 17 wrap: GSV leads in Q3, can't keep up with Lynx stars as MIN pulls away; Eurobasketeers have rusty return (VV: Tiffany Hayes)

• Game 16 wrap. GSV blows out Seattle; close for a half and then vooooom; Thornton leaves with injury (VV: Tiffany Hayes)

• Game 15 wrap: Valkyries pull away late to put away Chicago Sky; Thornton career-high 29; Chen and Martin in double digits and close game (VV: Kayle Thornton)

• Game 14 wrap: Always Close Enough to Hurt™; GSV takes champs NYL to last shot; Kate Martin goes wild, but so do Johannes and Stewart

• Game 13 wrap: GSV fast breaks + 2-3 zone = blowout of CONN

• Game 12 wrap: Shorthanded Valkyries storm back from down 13 to beat Caitlin Clark's Fever going away

• Game 11 wrap: Wings outrebound Valks, pull away late; Amihere and Hayes show promise and pain in return

• Game 10 wrap. Valks blowout Storm, then un-blowout Storm, still win. Always Close Enough To Hurt™

• Game 9 wrap. Leite out of the doghouse, closes out the game with Thornton in OT to beat LA; Salaun pours in 21

• Game 8 wrap. Valkyries blow out #3 Aces and contain MVP A’ja Wilson

• Game 7 wrap: Buddhism teaches us that suffering comes from attachment to material things

• Game 6 wrap: Valkyries even with WNBA Finalists Lynx at half, get blown out in Q4, storm back at end too late

• Game 5 wrap: So close to the upset of the year... Always Close Enough To Hurt™

• Game 4 wrap: Liberty blast Valks early by 25; GSV storms back to within 11, but fade in the fourth

• Game 1 wrap: GSV thrills and fights but can't overcome Plum's record-setting 37

Apricot’s Valkyries & Basketball Basics videos

These videos are meant to be friendly to beginners but have interesting observations for observers of all backgrounds. All the parts can be viewed independently, but the vocabulary does build up with each Part. The whole series can be found on YouTube here.

Part 4 terms defined include:

• 00:38 Switching defense

• 00:56 Mismatches

• 02:15 Bad switches

• 03:25 Show and recover defense (hedge and recover)

• 04:54 Drop defense

• 06:17 Valkyries 325 = Warriors 55

• 06:54 Blitz / Trap / Double team defense, surprise

• 07:41 Countering the blitz with isolation

• 08:45 Drop vs blitz defense

Part 3 terms defined include:

• 00:33 Go Over the screen, Go Under the screen, High side, Low side

• 02:19 HORNS formation

• 02:33 Dive or Roll

• 03:23 HORNS 5

• 04:14 Dribble handoff, DHO

• 05:07 Pindown screen, Down screen

• 05:15 Using the screen, Coming off the screen

• 06:37 Jamming the cut, Bumping the cut, Denying the cut

• 07:35 Slip a screen, Roll vs Pop

Part 2 terms defined include:

• 00:38 Recover

• 00:46 Bigs and Smalls

• 00:54 Mismatch

• 01:53 Rotating on defense

• 02:42 Slipping the screen, ghosting the screen

• 03:03 Double team, trap, blitz

• 04:02 Rejecting the screen

• 04:26 Helping at the nail

• 06:21 Slide cut, Passing angle

Part 1 terms include:

• 00:34 Dribbling and shooting, big vs small

• 02:00 Screens

• 02:10 Off ball

• 02:32 Cut, Flare Cut, Flare Screen

• 03:39 Ball Fake

• 03:53 Geography of the Court

• 03:57 Baseline, sideline, up, down, top

• 04:10 Corners, elbows, HORNS

• 05:29 Pick and roll, screen and roll

• 05:49 Dribble handoff

• 06:17 Rebounding, boxing out

• 06:18 Roll

• 07:18 Backdoor cut

• 07:46 ICE defense

• 07:51 take / accept / use the screen

Oversimplified guide to the Valkyries roster

The starting lineup will be shuffled with the return of the Eurobasketeers.

• Starters in the pre-Eurobasketeers-return era, slightly scoring challenged but feisty defenders

  • #22 Veronica Burton. Solid point guard, organizes and calls all the plays; outstanding defender and ball-stealer; decent at running pick-and-roll, not a great scorer, but can muscle in layups and running hooks and hit some 3s.

  • #5 Kayla Thornton. Vet all-around forward. Likes to spot up for corner 3s and get dirty fighting for rebounds everywhere. With Burton is a team leader and organizer. Was WNBA Player of the Week! Was key bench player for the champion Liberty.

  • #15 Tiffany Hayes.

    • Lightning bug driver, unstoppable in the open court. But this team leader (she spoke at opening day) had a bad nose RE-INJURY and is still wearing a big mask.

    • IND was the first game where she looked comfortable (all year!) and could display both her speedy footwork guarding Caitlin Clark 1-on-1 and also running effective pick and rolls emphasizing her speeding to the rim for layups.

  • #25 Monique Billings. Sturdy scorer and rebounding vet, starting to really hit her stride as the screener in pick and roll. Can pop out for 3 or finish through contact.

• Entertaining Bench, slightly chaotic

  • #14 Temi Fágbénlé.

    • Decent scoring, all-around, solid vet center. Can run pick and roll and punish mismatches by posting up.

  • #20 Kate Martin. The most popular player, Iowa teammate of Caitlin Clark.

    • Has hit a couple of threes but her finishing at the rim has been difficult

    • Starting to settle in a bit as a shooter and even as a screener for pick-and-pop. Her four 3s put GSV in position for an upset over NYL.

    • Chaotic on defense: some very heads-up rotations, some bad switches.

  • #3 Laeticia Amihere.

    • Indirectly won this spot over Linskens since GSV is going further into smallball, 5-out, run-and-gun style, which needs a more dynamic athlete to run the court. It didn’t hurt that Amihere hit a couple of threes in preseason.

    • She got some minutes vs SEA and GSV featured her in several keeper-actions where she fakes a dribble handoff to a guard and drives. They were a mixed bag of baskets and offensive fouls.

    • In the DAL and IND games, she has been a bright spot, pouring in points and being very assertive on offense. Amihere adds a different dimension to the team, i.e. get me the ball in the paint or downhill on fake handoff and no one can stop me 1-on-1.

    • On defense, she’s finding her place with some highlight blocks and steals. She’s been getting into the flow of rotating as weak side help from the elbow to cover when there is a small defender stuck in the low weak side.

    • On the other hand, in the NYL game she had a couple of very glaring mistakes: going under on a Marine Johannes screen (which led to an open 3 and then microwave hot Marine making two more 3s in a minute) and misplaying Stewart on an end of quarter drive.

  • #2 Kaitlyn Chen. A decent, smart point guard. Chen was, by applause, *the* most popular player in the preseason games, even surpassing Kate Martin.

    • Chen played real minutes vs NYL. She fought on defense and didn’t turn the ball over on offense. She then not only played real minutes vs CHI, but also closed a tight game!

    • She still on the bubble to be cut for Iliana Rupert, but she’s played her way into a lineup controversy.

  • #24 Cecilia Zandalasini. Another vet wing who can shoot the 3. Has been out all training camp with right foot issue but came into the Liberty game and hit big shots. She was given the last shot to tie the Liberty game, so Nakase believes in her. Went to Eurobasket and led Italy to an upset run to 3rd place, leading the team in scoring and efficiency. She took a while to get back in the WNBA flow, but she looked creative and effective vs LVA.

  • #13 Janelle Salaün, Fresh off an Italian League Finals MVP, she joined GSV in Game 2 and hasn’t stopped shooting since. She went to Eurobasket and led the powerhouse France team in scoring and efficiency. She’s taken a few games to adjust to the WNBA, but vs LVA she led the team in scoring.

  • #0 Carla Leite

    • Youngest at 21 y.o., was 2024-25 EuroCup Finals MVP.

    • Excellent bounce back games after being in Coach Nakase’s doghouse, barely playing in a 4 game stretch before Eurobasket.

    • Some dazzling speed on drives and horrible turnovers. Rookie life.

    • Promised NOT to leave for Eurobasket, a commitment that has won my heart.