Game 17: Golden State Valkyries @ Minnesota Lynx, 5:00 PM PDT. Eurobasketeers return vs the #1 team.

start of a long road trip

Table of Contents

• The story so far

  • Killer road trip into the All-Star Break

  • Return of the Eurobasketeers

  • The shadow of Iliana Rupert

  • How to watch

  • GSV injury / absence report

• What to expect

  • Comparative team power rankings

  • Apricot’s season game summaries

    • Apricot’s Valkyries & Basketball Basics videos

  • Oversimplified guide to the Valkyries roster

    • Into the weeds: it’s easy for GSV to waive any player

The story so far

Killer road trip into the All-Star Break

GSV have a loooong road trip which includes a little stop home which is so short that in some ways it will feel like part of the road trip.

• July 5 at #1 Minnesota ← YOU ARE HERE

• July 7 at #4 Atlanta

• July 9 at #7 Indiana

• July 12 at #8 Las Vegas

• July 14 #3 Phoenix

• July 16 at #5 Seattle

Expect worse performance as teams play worse on a long road trip as they wear down from the intense schedule and suffer from a lack of time for practice and opponent-specific preparation.

It’s not just theoretical… WNBA road teams win about 42% of the time. That gives roughly an expected value of 2.4 wins.

Also throw in that they are playing 4 of the top 5 teams plus teams better than their record with IND missing time from Caitlyn Clark and LVA recently adding NaLyssa Smith, and this could be ugly. Throw in on top of that the fact that they will be re-integrating the Eurobasketeers and possibly creating new lineup disruption with the addition of Iliana Rupert and it could get VERY ugly.

Given all this, I think a realistic stretch goal would be to split the road trip 3-3 with 2-4 and worse likely.

Return of the Eurobasketeers

Eurobasket was expected to disrupt the Valkyries I wrote the following, which I think was a widely shared conventional wisdom. It also turned out to be almost completely wrong:

No one knows but it will likely be a big downgrade to team performance. The players leaving have all been key players in crunch time for Coach Nakase:

• Julie Vanloo, Belgium

• Janelle Salaün, France

• Cecilia Zandalasini, Italy

• Temi Fágbénlé, United Kingdom

A shooting-starved team is losing their #1, #2, and #4 in threes per game. Fagbenle is their starting center. This is a huge disruption to a team that has only been together about 1 month.

On the other hand, it will be a big opportunity for the remaining.

• Carla Leite will have to step up as backup point guard, or even starter depending on Tip Hayes’s recovery calendar.

• Kyara Linskens will get a lot more minutes at center, and perhaps even start.

• That’s a lot of shots to leave, and everyone will need to step up, particularly Billings and Talbot who have the most WNBA scoring experience.

• Some replacement contract players will get a chance to show off their talents.

How it was wrong:

• It was not a downgrade. Instead GSV ripped off a 6-2 run (and one of the 2 was a last minute loss to the defending champs).

• Leite stepped up a little and then injured her back, feeling leg pain. Out of caution, GSV held her out of four games. This instead caused Kaitlyn Chen to have to step up.

• Linskens did not get more minutes. Instead, she was waived (she says by her request) to play Eurobasket. She excelled by the way for the tourney winners BEL.

• Billings and Talbot did step up a little bit on offense but more so on defense. They had to guard bigs since starting center Fagbenle was away and GSV only brought on Amihere as a big.

What was right is that the replacement players Amihere and Chen really stepped up. (Hall and Powers never really got the opportunity to step up.) They stepped up to the point where, in order to keep them on the roster, GSV stunningly waived fan favorite Julie Vanloo in a particularly cruel way:

• Valkyries waive Julie Vanloo, Chloe Bibby, Bree Hall

So now Amihere and Chen have survived the return of the Eurobasketeers and remain in the lineup. The team will now have to adjust and negotiate new roles with the return of the players.

The shadow of Iliana Rupert

However, one more disruption awaits. GSV drafted the rights to Iliana Rupert who starred as the starting center for the powerhouse France team. FRA lost an absolute heartbreaker to Spain in the semifinals when Rupert missed the game-tying free throw at the buzzer.) Despite that, Rupert is very good and she plans to join GSV now that Eurobasket is over.

That would require the waiver of one current player. The players averaging the fewest minutes per game are

• Kaitlyn Chen

• Laeticia Amihere

• Kate Martin

• Stephanie Talbot

• Carla Leite

So it would be a stunner if any other player were waived. Logic tells me that Talbot would be the next player to be waived, but after the Vanloo waiver, it’s clear GSV is unpredictable.

The brief case for waiving Talbot:

• GSV own the rights to Martin and Leite for the next two years. GSV would have the restricted free agency rights to Chen and Amihere for the next few years. Talbot will be an unrestricted free agent (and not that it matters in a cold business, but she is also guaranteed her full salary even if waived).

• Talbot also is last on the team in True Shooting %, has the lowest Total Rebounding % among bigs, and has the highest Turnover %.

• A lot of what she does as a stretch-4 overlaps with Thornton, Billings, and Zandalasini. Amihere brings post scoring and dynamic athleticism. Leite bring young potential and lightning speed. Kate Martin is a bruising small who can defend bigs in a pinch and can also keep the offense running and shoot threes at an average rate.

• Up until now I would have said Kaitlyn Chen was the most likely to be waived, as in theory she was behind Hayes, Burton, Vanloo, Leite and Martin as guards. But Chen’s received not just real minutes but also closing lineup minutes. Also, Vanloo was waived, Leite has had a lingering injury, and Tip Hayes has missed time twice for a broken face and still manages to get smashed in the head multiple times a game. So there might be a need for guard depth and the waiver of Vanloo elevates Chen from almost-certain-cut to on-the-bubble with Talbot.

How to watch

• Usually: KPIX+ (Bay Area), KMAX (Sacramento)

  • In the Bay Area, KPIX is channel 5, and KPIX+, the home of Valkyries basketball, is channel 44 (cable 12). In Sacramento, KMAX is channel 31, and KOVR is channel 13.

• Friday games are streamed on ION, available on Fubo and YouTube TV and elsewhere. Be careful, last time ION mis-titled the games on their multiple channels, so try all of them to find the Valkyries.

• WNBA League Pass if you are out of the blackout region. Even if blacked out, in theory the game is available right after the conclusion.

GSV injury / absence report

• Carla Leite is OUT with a lingering back problem.

What to expect

From the Valkyries:

• High energy

• Fast pace, fast breaks

• Aggressive defense trying for on-ball steals and deflected passes

• League-leading three-point shooting (in attempts, definitely not accuracy)

  • We Lose Money On Every Sale, But We Make It Up In Volume™

• Five-out formations, pick and roll, and HORNS formations

• Shifting defensive schemes, occasional 2-3 zone

Expect ferocious fight and heart against the odds, and if we ever get a Full Squad, then they should be able to beat all but the top WNBA teams.

Comparative team power rankings

Power rankings are all made up, but they are useful to see the conventional wisdom about teams. Here’s one from Newsweek:

5. Golden State Valkyries (9-7)

Last Week: 5 | Upcoming: MIN (7/5), ATL (7/7), IND (7/9)

After a bit of a rocky start, the Valkyries have rounded into form as one of the league's top teams. Golden State has relentless rebounders and hard-nosed defenders at every position. With a smothering defense that turns teams over at a league-leading rate and one of the best fast-break teams, the Valkyries are one of the surprise teams of the season.

1. Minnesota Lynx (15-2)

Last Week: 2 | Upcoming: GSV (7/5), CHI (7/6), PHX (7/9), LAS (7/10)

Though the Lynx may have fallen short of securing back-to-back Commissioner's Cup championships, the pack responded with a ferocious victory over the Washington Mystics. The WNBA's scoring leader, Napheesa Collier, was held to just half her scoring average in the championship and returned to form against the Mystics, pouring in 28.

Apricot’s season game summaries

• Game 16 wrap. GSV blows out Seattle; close for a half and then vooooom; Thornton leaves with injury

• Game 15 wrap: Valkyries pull away late to put away Chicago Sky; Thornton career-high 29; Chen and Martin in double digits and close game

• Game 14 wrap: Always Close Enough to Hurt™; GSV takes champs NYL to last shot; Kate Martin goes wild, but so do Johannes and Stewart

• Game 13 wrap: GSV fast breaks + 2-3 zone = blowout of CONN

• Game 12 wrap: Shorthanded Valkyries storm back from down 13 to beat Caitlin Clark's Fever going away

• Game 11 wrap: Wings outrebound Valks, pull away late; Amihere and Hayes show promise and pain in return

• Game 10 wrap. Valks blowout Storm, then un-blowout Storm, still win. Always Close Enough To Hurt™

• Game 9 wrap. Leite out of the doghouse, closes out the game with Thornton in OT to beat LA; Salaun pours in 21

• Game 8 wrap. Valkyries blow out #3 Aces and contain MVP A’ja Wilson

• Game 7 wrap: Buddhism teaches us that suffering comes from attachment to material things

• Game 6 wrap: Valkyries even with WNBA Finalists Lynx at half, get blown out in Q4, storm back at end too late

• Game 5 wrap: So close to the upset of the year... Always Close Enough To Hurt™

• Game 4 wrap: Liberty blast Valks early by 25; GSV storms back to within 11, but fade in the fourth

• Game 1 wrap: GSV thrills and fights but can't overcome Plum's record-setting 37

Apricot’s Valkyries & Basketball Basics videos

Oversimplified guide to the Valkyries roster

The starting lineup will be shuffled with the return of the Eurobasketeers.

• Starters in the pre-Eurobasketeers-return era, slightly scoring challenged but feisty defenders

  • #22 Veronica Burton. Solid point guard, organizes and calls all the plays; outstanding defender and ball-stealer; decent at running pick-and-roll, not a great scorer, but can muscle in layups and running hooks and hit some 3s.

  • #5 Kayla Thornton. Vet all-around forward. Likes to spot up for corner 3s and get dirty fighting for rebounds everywhere. With Burton is a team leader and organizer. Was WNBA Player of the Week! Was key bench player for the champion Liberty.

  • #7 Stephanie Talbot.

    • Vet wing who can shoot the 3 (in theory; 15.4% 3P in reality so far).

    • Starting since the Eurobasket exodus.

    • Had been penciled in as starter in preseason, but injuries delayed her debut until Game 3 and she has looked rusty every since.

    • Had been a Did Not Play - Coach Decision until Eurobasket.

    • As a starter, has not been scoring, but did make some sweet passes, spirited steals, and awful turnovers. Had something of a breakout game vs NYL.

  • #15 Tiffany Hayes.

    • Lightning bug driver, unstoppable in the open court. But this team leader (she spoke at opening day) had a bad nose RE-INJURY and is still wearing a big mask.

    • IND was the first game where she looked comfortable (all year!) and could display both her speedy footwork guarding Caitlin Clark 1-on-1 and also running effective pick and rolls emphasizing her speeding to the rim for layups.

  • #25 Monique Billings. Sturdy scorer and rebounding vet, starting to really hit her stride as the screener in pick and roll. Can pop out for 3 or finish through contact.

• Entertaining Bench, slightly chaotic

  • #14 Temi Fágbénlé.

    • Decent scoring, all-around, solid vet center. Can run pick and roll and punish mismatches by posting up.

    • Hasn’t started since returning from Eurobasket.

  • #20 Kate Martin. The most popular player, Iowa teammate of Caitlin Clark.

    • Has hit a couple of threes but her finishing at the rim has been difficult

    • Starting to settle in a bit as a shooter and even as a screener for pick-and-pop. Her four 3s put GSV in position for an upset over NYL.

    • Chaotic on defense: some very heads-up rotations, some bad switches.

  • #3 Laeticia Amihere.

    • Indirectly won this spot over Linskens since GSV is going further into smallball, 5-out, run-and-gun style, which needs a more dynamic athlete to run the court. It didn’t hurt that Amihere hit a couple of threes in preseason.

    • She got some minutes vs SEA and GSV featured her in several keeper-actions where she fakes a dribble handoff to a guard and drives. They were a mixed bag of baskets and offensive fouls.

    • In the DAL and IND games, she has been a bright spot, pouring in points and being very assertive on offense. Amihere adds a different dimension to the team, i.e. get me the ball in the paint or downhill on fake handoff and no one can stop me 1-on-1.

    • On defense, she’s finding her place with some highlight blocks and steals. She’s been getting into the flow of rotating as weak side help from the elbow to cover when there is a small defender stuck in the low weak side.

    • On the other hand, in the NYL game she had a couple of very glaring mistakes: going under on a Marine Johannes screen (which led to an open 3 and then microwave hot Marine making two more 3s in a minute) and misplaying Stewart on an end of quarter drive.

  • #2 Kaitlyn Chen. A decent, smart point guard. Chen was, by applause, *the* most popular player in the preseason games, even surpassing Kate Martin.

    • Chen played real minutes vs NYL. She fought on defense and didn’t turn the ball over on offense. She then not only played real minutes vs CHI, but also closed a tight game!

    • She still on the bubble to be cut for Iliana Rupert, but she’s played her way into a lineup controversy.

• Back from Eurobasket

  • #24 Cecilia Zandalasini. Another vet wing who can shoot the 3. Has been out all training camp with right foot issue but came into the Liberty game and hit big shots. She was given the last shot to tie the Liberty game, so Nakase believes in her.

  • #13 Janelle Salaün, Fresh off an Italian League Finals MVP, she joined GSV in Game 2 and hasn’t stopped shooting since. She’s reportedly headed for Eurobasket for June so enjoy her while you can.

• Injured

  • #0 Carla Leite

    • Youngest at 21 y.o., was 2024-25 EuroCup Finals MVP.

    • Excellent bounce back games after being in Coach Nakase’s doghouse, barely playing in a 4 game stretch before Eurobasket.

    • Some dazzling speed on drives and horrible turnovers. Rookie life.

    • Promised NOT to leave for Eurobasket, a commitment that has won my heart.

    • Out for a back injury since 6-19 vs IND.

Into the weeds: it’s easy for GSV to waive any player

The team hasn’t announced the exact type of contract of any of the players. The WNBA has listed every one as a “rest of season” contract, but we’ve noted that WNBA.com has been wrong before. Thus, no one knows if these are hardship or just normal rest-of-season contracts like WNBA.com says. I suspect they are rest-of-season contracts, because that gives max flexibility about what to pay the players.

Julia Velson wrote on 2025-06-25:

None of the GSV recently added players are hardship contracts. A hardship is granted by the league when a team has less than 10 available players AND no salary cap room. The hardship exemption is an exemption to the salary cap. These contracts end when the team has 10 or more of its non-hardship players available. Contracts (hardship or not) signed after the beginning of the season and before the midpointvare defined in the CBA ad "rest of season". This language is not about the term of the contract, it is about how the salary is calculated. It is calculated as a pro-ration of the full season minimum.

As I understand it, to waive the rest-of-season contract, you just do it whenever you want and the salary cap impact is only the amount already paid because the contracts are usually not guaranteed. Because GSV has so much salary cap, this is not a concern.

Thus, effectively there is no zero difference in difficulty of waiving between any of the hardship, replacement or rest-of-season contracts. The players will all be waived or not depending on their performance, team needs and most importantly, roster spots.