EARLY START Game 24: Golden State Valkyries @ Connecticut Sun, 10:00 AM PDT.

let’s stress out some campers

Table of Contents

• What to expect today

  • How to watch

  • Injury / absence report

    • Kayla Thornton out for season; recovering from right knee surgery

  • How the Valkyries will play

  • Comparative team power rankings / preview

    • 7. Golden State Valkyries (10-12)

    • 13. Connecticut Sun (3-19)

• The story so far

  • Killer road trip after the All-Star Break

  • The dawning of the Age of Iliana Rupert

  • Apricot’s game wrap-ups, a season overview

  • Apricot’s Valkyries & Basketball Basics videos

  • Oversimplified guide to the Valkyries roster

What to expect today

How to watch

• Usually: KPIX+ (Bay Area), KMAX (Sacramento)

  • In the Bay Area, KPIX is channel 5, and KPIX+, the home of Valkyries basketball, is channel 44 (cable 12). In Sacramento, KMAX is channel 31, and KOVR is channel 13.

• WNBA League Pass if you are out of the blackout region. Even if blacked out, in theory the game is available right after the conclusion.

• Friday games are streamed on ION, available on Fubo and YouTube TV and elsewhere. Be careful, last time ION mis-titled the games on their multiple channels, so try all of them to find the Valkyries.

Injury / absence report

• Monique Billings - Out - Right Ankle

• Kayla Thornton - Out - Lower Leg

• KT is really really out, as in the whole season.

How the Valkyries will play

• High energy

• Fast pace, fast breaks

• Aggressive defense trying for on-ball steals and deflected passes

• League-leading three-point shooting (in attempts, definitely not accuracy)

  • We Lose Money On Every Sale, But We Make It Up In Volume™

• Five-out formations, pick and roll, and HORNS formations

• Shifting defensive schemes, occasional 2-3 zone

Expect ferocious fight and heart against the odds, and if we ever get a Full Squad, then they should be able to beat all but the top WNBA teams.

Comparative team power rankings / preview

The WNBA is a stacked league so there are no easy outs. But… Connecticut is dead last, so if GSV wants to keep their playoff hopes alive, they have to beat the teams below them.

Power rankings are all made up, but they are useful to see the conventional wisdom about teams. Here’s one from BR:

7. Golden State Valkyries (10-12)

Previous Ranking: 10 (+3)

Since Last Ranking (8-8): 8th in offense, 2nd in defense, 3rd in net rating

Next Five Games: DAL, @CON, @ATL, @WAS, @CHI

Three Quick Thoughts

• I don't know if there are enough good things I can say about this Valkyries defense. Their ball pressure, off-ball physicality, aggressive help defense, and scheme versatility has popped all year long. At a minimum, it keeps them in games; at best, their defense helps shape games into their image. Natalie Nakase and the rest of the coaching staff has done a tremendous job of scheming this up. Get Kayla Thornton on an All-Defensive team, please.

• I will say, the Valkyries do have to figure something out on the road in order to solidify themselves as a sure-fire playoff team. Their 80-61 win over the Indiana Fever was, shockingly, their first road win outside of the state of California all season. Overall, they're 3-8 on the road with a minus-4.9 net rating in those outings.

• Just a quick "I see you" to Monique Billings, whose energy on both ends really encapsulates the entire Valkyries experience. Be physical, defend multiple positions, battle on the glass, give up your body on charges, screen hard, and sprinkle in the occasional three. It's been good work for Billings.

13. Connecticut Sun (3-19)

Previous Ranking: 13 (N/A)

Since Last Ranking (2-13): 13th in offense, 13th in defense, 13th in net rating

Next Five Games: LAS, GSV, SEA, NYL, NYL

Three Quick Thoughts

• The intrigue is with the youth at this point, and I'd like to start the bidding with rookie guard Leila Lacan. We've only gotten five games of her at this point, but I've been impressed with her work inside the arc. She's converted a pristine 64% of her twos while showcasing some legit juice on drives (39 drives, 1.22 PPP). Keep an eye out for her.

• Related to the youth bit, quick hat-tips to Jacy Sheldon (45.3% on 3.5 3s since June 3rd) continuing to hunt her shot, Saniya Rivers (2.0 steals, 1.1 blocks) putting together an under-the-radar-because-the-team-is-bad All-Defense campaign, and Aneesah Morrow (8.6 points, 5.7 rebounds) generally flying around in an effort to make things happen.

• It hasn't been the best season for Tina Charles, but I do appreciate how much fun she seems to be having -- both with this group, and with any of the young bigs she's tasked with matching up with. She's given out plenty of buckets and words of encouragement this year and I just hope we're soaking that in.

The story so far

Killer road trip after the All-Star Break

This is a single home game before GSV have a loooong road trip. Didn’t we just do this? Yes, there was a killer road trip before the All-Star Break where GSV limped to a 1-5 record. The last one was 6 games, 6 cities in 12 days. This upcoming one is 6 games, 6 cities in 10 days.

• July 25 #12 Dallas (W, roller-coaster ride ended right)

• July 27 at #13 Connecticut ← YOU ARE HERE

• July 29 at #5 Atlanta

• July 31 at #8 Washington

• August 1 at #11 Chicago

• August 3 at #7 Las Vegas

Expect worse performance as teams play worse on a long road trip as they wear down from the intense schedule and suffer from a lack of time for practice and opponent-specific preparation.

It’s not just theoretical… WNBA road teams win about 42% of the time. That gives roughly an expected value of 2.5 wins.

Last road trip was killer because GSV played 4 of the top 5 teams plus teams better than their record. This time, there are at least 3 teams that GSV “should” beat and the others are beatable.

GSV will have lineup instability while integrating Iliana Rupert but should finally have some roster stability 3-3 is a very reachable stretch goal for the next 6 games.

The dawning of the Age of Iliana Rupert

We’ve heard the murmurs (or maybe you’ve just heard it from me). “Rupert is coming, Rupert is coming.” (That’s “Ru-PAIR” in French.) GSV expansion-drafted the rights to Iliana Rupert who starred as the starting center for the powerhouse France team. (FRA lost an absolute heartbreaker to Spain in the semifinals when Rupert missed the game-tying free throw at the buzzer.)

Rupert had a dazzlingly bad start and then an even more dazzlingly good second half. Let’s hope IR continues the good stuff.

More details here:

• Who is Iliana Rupert and who will be cut to make room for her? This piece predicts and predates the waiver of Talbot which happened yesterday…

Apricot’s game wrap-ups, a season overview

(VV = Valkyrie Valor vote winner)

• Game 23 wrap: Valkyries come back vs Wings, VIVA LA FRANCE; GSV begins adjusting to life without Kayla (VV: Janelle Salaun)

• Game 22 wrap: Valkyries fade in last 3 min, Nneke takes over; Always… wait for it… Close Enough To Hurt™ (VV: Carla Leite)

• Game 21 wrap: Valks miracle comeback to tie, then lose on foul call; Always Close Enough To Hurt™ but this is getting ridiculous (VV: Janelle Salaun)

• Game 20 wrap: Always Close Enough To Hurt™; Valkyries fall just short; Aces stars shine (VV: Cecilia Zanadalsini)

• Game 19 wrap. Valkyries thump Fever, send campers home sad; Caitlin Clark outshot by Veronica Burton(!?) (VV: Veronica Burton)

• Game 18 wrap. GSV can't overcome turnovers, ATL bigs warping defense; Gray closes out the game (VV: forgot to run poll, sorry)

• Game 17 wrap: GSV leads in Q3, can't keep up with Lynx stars as MIN pulls away; Eurobasketeers have rusty return (VV: Tiffany Hayes)

• Game 16 wrap. GSV blows out Seattle; close for a half and then vooooom; Thornton leaves with injury (VV: Tiffany Hayes)

• Game 15 wrap: Valkyries pull away late to put away Chicago Sky; Thornton career-high 29; Chen and Martin in double digits and close game (VV: Kayle Thornton)

• Game 14 wrap: Always Close Enough to Hurt™; GSV takes champs NYL to last shot; Kate Martin goes wild, but so do Johannes and Stewart

• Game 13 wrap: GSV fast breaks + 2-3 zone = blowout of CONN

• Game 12 wrap: Shorthanded Valkyries storm back from down 13 to beat Caitlin Clark's Fever going away

• Game 11 wrap: Wings outrebound Valks, pull away late; Amihere and Hayes show promise and pain in return

• Game 10 wrap. Valks blowout Storm, then un-blowout Storm, still win. Always Close Enough To Hurt™

• Game 9 wrap. Leite out of the doghouse, closes out the game with Thornton in OT to beat LA; Salaun pours in 21

• Game 8 wrap. Valkyries blow out #3 Aces and contain MVP A’ja Wilson

• Game 7 wrap: Buddhism teaches us that suffering comes from attachment to material things

• Game 6 wrap: Valkyries even with WNBA Finalists Lynx at half, get blown out in Q4, storm back at end too late

• Game 5 wrap: So close to the upset of the year... Always Close Enough To Hurt™

• Game 4 wrap: Liberty blast Valks early by 25; GSV storms back to within 11, but fade in the fourth

• Game 1 wrap: GSV thrills and fights but can't overcome Plum's record-setting 37

Apricot’s Valkyries & Basketball Basics videos

These videos are meant to be friendly to beginners but have interesting observations for observers of all backgrounds. All the parts can be viewed independently, but the vocabulary does build up with each Part. The whole series can be found on YouTube here.

Part 4 terms defined include:

• 00:38 Switching defense

• 00:56 Mismatches

• 02:15 Bad switches

• 03:25 Show and recover defense (hedge and recover)

• 04:54 Drop defense

• 06:17 Valkyries 325 = Warriors 55

• 06:54 Blitz / Trap / Double team defense, surprise

• 07:41 Countering the blitz with isolation

• 08:45 Drop vs blitz defense

Part 3 terms defined include:

• 00:33 Go Over the screen, Go Under the screen, High side, Low side

• 02:19 HORNS formation

• 02:33 Dive or Roll

• 03:23 HORNS 5

• 04:14 Dribble handoff, DHO

• 05:07 Pindown screen, Down screen

• 05:15 Using the screen, Coming off the screen

• 06:37 Jamming the cut, Bumping the cut, Denying the cut

• 07:35 Slip a screen, Roll vs Pop

Part 2 terms defined include:

• 00:38 Recover

• 00:46 Bigs and Smalls

• 00:54 Mismatch

• 01:53 Rotating on defense

• 02:42 Slipping the screen, ghosting the screen

• 03:03 Double team, trap, blitz

• 04:02 Rejecting the screen

• 04:26 Helping at the nail

• 06:21 Slide cut, Passing angle

Part 1 terms include:

• 00:34 Dribbling and shooting, big vs small

• 02:00 Screens

• 02:10 Off ball

• 02:32 Cut, Flare Cut, Flare Screen

• 03:39 Ball Fake

• 03:53 Geography of the Court

• 03:57 Baseline, sideline, up, down, top

• 04:10 Corners, elbows, HORNS

• 05:29 Pick and roll, screen and roll

• 05:49 Dribble handoff

• 06:17 Rebounding, boxing out

• 06:18 Roll

• 07:18 Backdoor cut

• 07:46 ICE defense

• 07:51 take / accept / use the screen

Oversimplified guide to the Valkyries roster

The starting lineup will be shuffled with the return of the Eurobasketeers.

• Starters in the pre-Eurobasketeers-return era, slightly scoring challenged but feisty defenders

  • #22 Veronica Burton. Solid point guard, organizes and calls all the plays; outstanding defender and ball-stealer; decent at running pick-and-roll, not a great scorer, but can muscle in layups and running hooks and hit some 3s.

  • #5 Kayla Thornton. Vet all-around forward. Likes to spot up for corner 3s and get dirty fighting for rebounds everywhere. With Burton is a team leader and organizer. Was WNBA Player of the Week! Was key bench player for the champion Liberty.

  • #15 Tiffany Hayes.

    • Lightning bug driver, unstoppable in the open court. But this team leader (she spoke at opening day) had a bad nose RE-INJURY and is still wearing a big mask.

    • IND was the first game where she looked comfortable (all year!) and could display both her speedy footwork guarding Caitlin Clark 1-on-1 and also running effective pick and rolls emphasizing her speeding to the rim for layups.

  • #25 Monique Billings. Sturdy scorer and rebounding vet, starting to really hit her stride as the screener in pick and roll. Can pop out for 3 or finish through contact.

• Entertaining Bench, slightly chaotic

  • #14 Temi Fágbénlé.

    • Decent scoring, all-around, solid vet center. Can run pick and roll and punish mismatches by posting up.

  • #12 Iliana Rupert

    • A mystery from France. A tall, three-point shooting center who in theory could unlock the 5-out spaced lineups of Nakase’s dreams.

    • More details here: Who is Iliana Rupert and who will be cut to make room for her?

  • #20 Kate Martin. The most popular player, Iowa teammate of Caitlin Clark.

    • Has hit a couple of threes but her finishing at the rim has been difficult

    • Starting to settle in a bit as a shooter and even as a screener for pick-and-pop. Her four 3s put GSV in position for an upset over NYL.

    • Chaotic on defense: some very heads-up rotations, some bad switches.

  • #3 Laeticia Amihere.

    • Indirectly won this spot over Linskens since GSV is going further into smallball, 5-out, run-and-gun style, which needs a more dynamic athlete to run the court. It didn’t hurt that Amihere hit a couple of threes in preseason.

    • She got some minutes vs SEA and GSV featured her in several keeper-actions where she fakes a dribble handoff to a guard and drives. They were a mixed bag of baskets and offensive fouls.

    • In the DAL and IND games, she has been a bright spot, pouring in points and being very assertive on offense. Amihere adds a different dimension to the team, i.e. get me the ball in the paint or downhill on fake handoff and no one can stop me 1-on-1.

    • On defense, she’s finding her place with some highlight blocks and steals. She’s been getting into the flow of rotating as weak side help from the elbow to cover when there is a small defender stuck in the low weak side.

    • On the other hand, in the NYL game she had a couple of very glaring mistakes: going under on a Marine Johannes screen (which led to an open 3 and then microwave hot Marine making two more 3s in a minute) and misplaying Stewart on an end of quarter drive.

  • #2 Kaitlyn Chen. A decent, smart point guard. Chen was, by applause, *the* most popular player in the preseason games, even surpassing Kate Martin.

    • Chen played real minutes vs NYL. She fought on defense and didn’t turn the ball over on offense. She then not only played real minutes vs CHI, but also closed a tight game!

    • She still on the bubble to be cut for Iliana Rupert, but she’s played her way into a lineup controversy.

  • #24 Cecilia Zandalasini. Another vet wing who can shoot the 3. Has been out all training camp with right foot issue but came into the Liberty game and hit big shots. She was given the last shot to tie the Liberty game, so Nakase believes in her. Went to Eurobasket and led Italy to an upset run to 3rd place, leading the team in scoring and efficiency. She took a while to get back in the WNBA flow, but she looked creative and effective vs LVA.

  • #13 Janelle Salaün, Fresh off an Italian League Finals MVP, she joined GSV in Game 2 and hasn’t stopped shooting since. She went to Eurobasket and led the powerhouse France team in scoring and efficiency. She’s taken a few games to adjust to the WNBA, but vs LVA she led the team in scoring.

  • #0 Carla Leite

    • Youngest at 21 y.o., was 2024-25 EuroCup Finals MVP.

    • Excellent bounce back games after being in Coach Nakase’s doghouse, barely playing in a 4 game stretch before Eurobasket.

    • Some dazzling speed on drives and horrible turnovers. Her jump shot wasn’t working before the break and her passes to the PNR roller were a rollercoaster. Rookie life.

    • Promised NOT to leave for Eurobasket, a commitment that has won my heart.